Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the potential of flexible demand in a far future energy system. Flexible energy systems are imperative for more integration of fluctuating renewable energy sources (RES) and therefore flexible demand as a flexible measure becomes more significant. Denmark is a leading country for high share of wind power in its electricity production and has announced to become a non-fossil fuel using country by 2050. In this article, Denmark is seen as a case due to this ambitious national goal, but the validity of the object of the analyses is not restricted to Denmark. The energy system simulated in this article is based on a Danish government year 2050 scenario based solely on RES. The article adopts two approaches for the assessment of the potential of flexible demand. The first approach is a bottom-up technical approach investigating the potential of flexible demand from individual processes. Secondly, the level of flexible demand which makes a significant impact on the future energy system is assessed with a view to investigating whether the two approaches will ever meet and thus whether flexible demand has a significant role to play in the future energy system. The results show that the potential of flexible demand is only found in the 2h time frame with 24% and the daily time frame with approx. 7% of the electricity demand. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. The value of flexible demand in the energy system is thus limited.