Abstract
Assessing and predicting the evolution of habitat quality based on land use change under the process of urbanization is important for establishing a comprehensive ecological planning system and addressing the major challenges of global sustainable development. Here, two different prediction models were used to simulate the land use changes in 2025 based on the land use distribution data of Nanchang city in three periods and integrated into the habitat quality assessment model to specifically evaluate the trends and characteristics of future habitat quality changes, explore the impact of landscape pattern evolution on habitat, and analyze the differences and advantages of the two prediction models. The results show that the overall habitat quality in Nanchang declined significantly during the period 1995–2015. Habitat degradation near cities and in various watersheds is relatively significant. During the period 2015–2025, the landscape pattern and habitat quality of Nanchang will continue to maintain the trend of changes observed between 1995 and 2015, i.e., increasing construction land and decreasing habitat quality, with high pressure on ecological restoration. This study also identified that CA-Markov simulates the quantity of land use better, while FLUS simulates the spatial pattern of land use better. Overall, this study provides a reference for exploring the complex dynamic evolution mechanism of habitats.
Highlights
China’s urbanization process has been accelerating in recent years, with China’s urbanization rate increasing significantly to 63.89% by 2020 and expected to reach 70% by2030 [1]
Evaluating and predicting the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality under land-use change provides a scientific reference for carrying out ecological conservation and sustainable development
Two different prediction models (CA-Markov and future land use simulation (FLUS)) were used to simulate past, current and future land use changes based on the land use distribution data of Nanchang city in three periods of 1995, 2005 and 2015, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was introduced to integrate each of these two prediction models into habitat quality modeling to analyze the effects of the spatial and temporal evolution of landscape patterns on habitats
Summary
China’s urbanization process has been accelerating in recent years, with China’s urbanization rate increasing significantly to 63.89% by 2020 and expected to reach 70% by2030 [1]. Changes in land use/land cover and rapid urban expansion inevitably transform a large amount of ecological land, such as forests, grasslands and waters, into construction land, resulting in the fragmentation of habitats that are suitable for biological survival, which affects the changes in ecosystem structure and influences the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and changes the regional atmospheric chemistry [2] This destroys ecosystem climate regulation and other service functions, leading to a series of climate change problems, such as ozone layer holes, glacier melting and frequent extreme weather, and the sustainable development of cities is threatened and challenged [3]. Mansoor, D.K. et al studied the evolution of habitat quality in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire in different periods, and the authors elaborated on the general situation of habitat quality in these two countries [8]
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