Assessing wildfire risk and mitigation strategies in Qipanshan, China

Abstract

Wildfire threats in China have become more common with the increased vegetation coverage and fire-conductive weather frequency in past decades. At the landscape scale, identifying areas with high wildfire risks can enhance the fuel treatments efficiency and optimize suppression strategies. However, previous studies in China have mainly focused on assessing fire occurrences, while fewer works have analyzed the impacts of fire on natural or artificial ecosystems. In this study, we propose a fire risk assessment framework for evaluating the fire risk and effectiveness of mitigation strategies, taking Qipanshan in Liaoning province as a reference study case. The results show that 1) strong winds and low fuel moisture drove conifer forests to be prone to crown fire even under average fire weather conditions; 2) areas with high and very high exposure levels accounted for 12% and 2.7% of the study area, respectively, while areas with high and very high fire risks accounted for 4.6% and 1.4%, respectively; and 3) firebreaks can effectively reduce the fire risk by reducing the fire likelihood and intensity. Compared to the current scenario, mitigation measures could reduce the high- and very-high-fire-risk areas by 44.7% and 20.3%, respectively. Our results suggest that measures such as postfire regeneration, fuel treatment, and enhancing response capabilities in these regions can significantly mitigate the fire risk. The approach could also be applied in other communities with fire risk problems.