Assessing wavestorm hazard evolution in the NW Mediterranean with hindcast and buoy data

Abstract

It has been suggested that climate change might modify the occurrence rate of large storms and their magnitude, due to a higher availability of energy in the atmosphere-ocean system. Forecasting physical models are commonly used to assess the effects. No one expects the physical model forecasts for one specific day to be accurate; we consider them to be good if they adequately describe the statistical characteristics of the climate. The Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) method is a common way to statistically treat the occurrence and magnitude of hazardous events: here, occurrence is modelled as a Poisson process and magnitude over a given threshold is assumed to follow a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We restrict our attention to Weibull-related GPDs, which exhibit an upper bound, to comply with the fact that any physical process has a finite upper limit. This contribution uses this framework to model time series of log-significant wave-height constructed joining quasi-collocated hindcast data and buoy measurements. Two of the POT model parameters (inhomogeneous Poisson rate and logarithm of the GPD shape parameter are considered to be a combination of a linear function of time and a series indicator function. The third parameter, logarithm of the GPD upper bound, is considered to have only a series indicator component. The resulting parameters are estimated using Bayesian methods. Using hincast and buoy series, the time span of the data set is extended, enhancing the precision of statistical results about potential linear changes. Simultaneously the statistical behaviour of hincast and buoy series are compared. At the same time, the step function allows to calibrate the statistical reproduction of storms by hindcasting.