Abstract
Abstract. Climate change is now a major environmental and developmental issue, and one that will increase the challenge of sustainable water resources management. In order to assess the implications of climate change for water resources in China, we calibrated a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with a resolution of 50×50 km2 using data from 125 well-gauged catchments. Based on similarities in climate conditions, soil texture and other variables, model parameters were transferred to other areas not covered by the calibrated catchments. Taking runoff in the period 1961–1990 as a baseline, we studied the impact of climate change on runoff under three emissions scenarios, A2, B2 and A1B. Model findings indicate that annual runoff over China as a whole will probably increase by approximately 3–10% by 2050, but with quite uneven spatial and temporal distribution. The prevailing pattern of "north dry and south wet" in China is likely to be exacerbated under global warming.
Highlights
Global warming caused by increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has become evident
During the last 50 yr from 1950 to 2000, air temperature has increased by 1.1◦, with the warmest decade occurring in the 1990s
There are seven hydrological parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that need to be calibrated with recorded daily stream flow
Summary
Global warming caused by increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has become evident. There is broad consensus that the Earth’s surface air temperature increased by about 0.74◦ during the last century, with the greatest increases occurring in the 1990s. Global temperature increases are likely to continue in the 21st century and will probably be accompanied by changes in precipitation (IPCC, 2007). In China, changes in surface air temperature are similar to those experienced globally, with increases of about 0.5–0.8◦ during the 20th century, slightly exceeding global temperature change in this period. Northeast China, north China and northwest China experienced significant warming in terms of annual average temperatures, with most warming occurring in winter and spring, as expected. There has been no significant long-term change in country-averaged annual precipitation. Global warming is likely to change precipitation patterns and will probably raise the frequency of extreme events
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