Assessing Vulnerability in Flood Prone Areas Using Analytic Hierarchy Process—Group Decision Making and Geographic Information System: A Case Study in Portugal

Abstract

A flood vulnerability index was constructed by coupling Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping capabilities with an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Group Decision-Making (GDM) resulting from a paired comparison matrix of expert groups to assign weights to each of the standardised criteria. A survey was sent to 25 flood experts from government organisations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and the private sector (56% academics and 44% non-academics). Respondents made pairwise comparisons for several criteria (population, socio-economic, buildings, and exposed elements) and sub-criteria. The group priorities were obtained by combining the Consistency Ratio (CR) and Euclidean Distance (ED) measures to assess the weight of each expert and obtain a final weight for each criterion and sub-criteria. In Portugal, 23 flood-prone areas were considered, and this work contributes with a tool to assess the flood vulnerability and consequently the flood risk. The flood vulnerability index was calculated, and the relevance of the proposed framework is demonstrated for flood-prone areas, in mainland Portugal. The results showed that in all five hydrographic regions, flood-prone areas with very high vulnerability were found, corresponding to areas with a high probability of flooding. The most vulnerable areas are Ponte de Lima in the North, Coimbra, and Pombal in the Centre; Loures in the Tagus and West Region; Setúbal and Alcácer do Sal in the Alentejo Region and Monchique in the Algarve Region. This methodology has the potential to be successfully applied to other flood-prone areas, combining the opinions of stakeholders validated by a mathematical model, which allows the vulnerability of the site to be assessed.