Assessing validity of elk and deer license sales estimated by contingent valuation

Abstract

Although contingent valuation (CV) often has been applied in the wildlife management field, the validity of CV remains a concern. This study explored the convergent and predictive validity of CV in a wildlife-related issue and addressed the use of CV in fee-structure decisions by examining estimates of participation and revenue associated with different deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) hunting license fees in Colorado. We examined convergent validity by comparing CV estimates of resident deer and elk hunting license sales to estimates from an analysis of historic license sales. We examined predictive validity by comparing estimates of nonresident deer and elk license sales to actual license sales after a fee increase took place. With respect to convergent validity, elk license sale estimates from the CV and historic analysis showed strong correspondence, but deer license sales from the 2 methods did not show strong convergence. Predictive validity test results showed that the CV model underestimated actual elk license sales at the increased fee by 31% and overestimated deer license sales by 55%. Implications of the results suggest a need for stronger correspondence in context in hunts between the CV scenario and when the fee increase takes place. Also, issues surrounding information provided to respondents in CV studies should be further explored.