Assessing urban rooftop PV economics for regional deployment by integrating local socioeconomic, technological, and policy conditions

Abstract

Assessing the urban rooftop photovoltaic (PV) economics is important for scaling up rooftop PVs for rapid decarbonization. In this study, socioeconomic, technological, and policy factors were integrated into a rooftop PV economic assessment. This comprehensive method was applied to 21 cities in the Guangdong province of China, in combination with local real parameters. The results show that, with higher urbanization levels, electricity tariffs, and PV self-consumption rates, cities in the Pearl River Delta area generally had better economic performance in terms of both economic scale and profitability. They accounted for 75% of the total rooftop PV potential in Guangdong Province and had an internal rate of return (IRR) as high as 14.6–19.2% for Commercial and Industrial buildings (C&I), and 9.9–15.9% for residential buildings (R). Socioeconomic, technological, and policy factors jointly affect the economic performance and create a promising future for Guangdong rooftop PVs. It is projected that the IRR of current worst performing cities will grow by 4.9–5.8, and 4.4–5.9 percentage points, and the payback period will be shortened by 5.8–6.7 and 3.4–4.1 years by 2030 for R and C&I buildings, respectively. Among the three factors, technological advancement had the most significant long-term effect, followed by socioeconomic development. Policy factors play an important role in alleviating short-term cash flow pressure. Integrating the three factors in the assessment provides us with a more comprehensive picture of how urban rooftop PV economics will evolve and a better idea of how to prioritize rooftop PV development. Suggestions for prioritizing the deployment of rooftop PV systems in Guangdong by 2030 were provided.