Assessing Trump's presidential endorsements while in and out of office (2018–2022)

Abstract

In the 2022 midterm elections, Donald Trump made a slew of high-profile endorsements, continuing a trend of prolific endorsement activity established during his time in office. While existing works have largely focused on presidential campaigning in congressional races from sitting presidents, little is known about the effects of this continued activity once a president has left office. This paper therefore assesses trends in President Trump's endorsements across three election cycles (2018–2022), testing whether the types of candidates that Trump chose to endorse and the engagement and electoral effects of these endorsements changed over time. Across all election cycles, his endorsements produced little benefit for candidates in the general election. Endorsed candidates did not benefit financially and collectively received an aggregate vote share penalty of approximately 1.5 percentage points. However, endorsed candidates received a consistent and substantial electoral benefit in Republican primary elections, with these benefits growing marginally over time. Trump's endorsements came increasingly early in the election cycle, with an increased focus on backing likely winners and rewarding political allies during the primaries. As such, significant changes in the types of candidates receiving endorsements after President Trump left office highlight an important shift in post-presidency endorsement strategy, where partisan electoral goals were secondary to a strategic focus on retaining personal influence within the Republican party.