Assessing Trends in Tree Cover, Wildfire and Population Growth in Zimbabwe since 2000

Abstract

Zimbabwe’s woodland and forests have experienced substantial change over the last two decades. In this study, our objective was to assess national-scale spatio-temporal changes in tree loss, wildfire, and population growth since 2000 using global data. Our results showed rates of tree loss were highest in the urbanized Harare and Bulawayo provinces between 2000–2004, followed by Masvingo and Manicaland provinces. We found agricultural versus non-agricultural land type classes had higher tree loss, with the highest rates in small resettlement farms (‘A1’ farms, averaging 5 ha in size) between 2000–2008. The findings from our analysis of wildfire showed burning peaked in 2010, impacting 12% of the country. In the peak fire years of 2008–2012, 30% of A2 self-contained resettlement farms (‘A2’ farms, averaging 318 ha in size) burned, along with 19% of A1 resettlement farms. Analysis of global population data showed increases across all provinces, particularly in large-scale commercial farming areas, with gradual increases seen in A1 and A2 farms. Understanding the trends over two decades and the patterns in three key pressures—tree loss, population change, and fire—provides an important contribution to help guide regional assistance efforts in Zimbabwe.