Assessing Trends in Supply and Demand for Pediatric Surgery Training

Abstract

This study assessed the supply and demand for Pediatric Surgery training in the U.S. from 2008 to 2022. We hypothesized that in the Pediatric Surgery Match: match rates would increase over time; U.S. MD Graduates would have higher match rates than non-U.S. MD Graduates; and fewer applicants would match at one of their top fellowship choices. This was a retrospective cohort study of Pediatric Surgery Match applicants (2008-2022). Cochran-Armitage tests elucidated temporal trends and chi square tests compared outcomes by applicant archetype. Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-accredited Pediatric Surgery training programs in the United States and non-ACGME-accredited programs in Canada. A total of 1,133 applicants for Pediatric Surgery training. From 2008 to 2012, growth in the annual number of fellowship positions (34-43, 27% increase) exceeded growth in number of applicants (62-69, 11% increase) (p < 0.001). Over the study period, the applicant-to-training ratio peaked at 2.1 to 2.2 in 2017 to 2018 and decreased to 1.4 to 1.6 in 2021 to 2022. The annual match rate for U.S. MD Graduates increased from 60% to 68% (p < 0.05), but decreased from 40% to 22% (p < 0.05) for non-U.S. MD Graduates. In 2022, there was a 3.1-fold difference in match rates between U.S. MD and non-U.S. MD Graduates (68% vs 22%, p < 0.001). The percentage of applicants that matched at their first choice (25%-20%, p < 0.001), second choice (11%-4%, p < 0.001), and third choice (7%-4%, p < 0.001) fellowships decreased over the study period. The percentage of applicants that matched at their fourth choice to least desirable fellowship increased from 23% to 33% (p < 0.001). The demand for Pediatric Surgery training peaked in 2017 to 2018 and has decreased since. However, the Pediatric Surgery Match remains competitive especially for non-U.S. MD Graduates. More research is needed to understand barriers to matching into Pediatric Surgery for non-U.S. MD Graduates.