Assessing Tornado Impacts in the State of Kentucky with a Focus on Demographics and Roadways Using a GIS-Based Approach

Abstract

Although the literature provides valuable insight into tornado vulnerability and resilience, there are still research gaps in assessing tornadoes’ impact on communities and transportation infrastructure, especially in the wake of the rapidly changing frequency and strength of tornadoes due to climate change. In this study, we first investigated the relationship between tornado exposure and demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related factors in our study area, the state of Kentucky. Tornado exposures for each U.S. census block group (CBG) were calculated by utilizing spatial analysis methods such as kernel density estimation and zonal statistics. Tornadoes between 1950 and 2022 were utilized to calculate tornado density values as a surrogate variable for tornado exposure. Since tornado density varies over space, a multiscale geographically weighted regression model was employed to consider spatial heterogeneity over the study region rather than using global regression such as ordinary least squares (OLS). The findings indicated that tornado density varied over the study area. The southwest portion of Kentucky and Jefferson County, which has low residential density, showed high levels of tornado exposure. In addition, relationships between the selected factors and tornado exposure also changed over space. For example, transportation costs as a percentage of income for the regional typical household was found to be strongly associated with tornado exposure in southwest Kentucky, whereas areas close to Jefferson County indicated an opposite association. The second part of this study involves the quantification of the tornado impact on roadways by using two different methods, and results were mapped. Although in both methods the same regions were found to be impacted, the second method highlighted the central CBGs rather than the peripheries. Information gathered by such an investigation can assist authorities in identifying vulnerable regions from both transportation network and community perspectives. From tornado debris handling to community preparedness, this type of work has the potential to inform sustainability-focused plans and policies in the state of Kentucky.