Assessing the viability of decarbonising India's nitrogenous fertiliser consumption

Abstract

The fertiliser sector in India is essential to its economy and for its food security. Despite being the second largest global producer of fertilisers, substantial imports of raw materials and fertilisers are required to bridge the demand gap for N–P–K fertilisers in India. Islanded green ammonia production in India shows significant potential to provide a carbon-free source of nitrogen for fertiliser production that will reduce India's imports of both nitrogenous fertilisers and the raw materials required for its production. Green ammonia production also carries many socioeconomic benefits compared to conventional production, such as enhanced job creation, reduced feedstock importation and air pollution. Using an existing islanded green ammonia production model, and applying it across India at a 1.0° (110.6 km) resolution using ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation) solar irradiance, windspeed and temperature data as an input. A heatmap of the achievable levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA) is then created, identifying areas which show strong potential for green ammonia production. Three scenarios for the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) reduction are considered and a more detailed analysis is performed on five locations of particular economic and social interest. These results are then used as the present value of ammonia to benchmark the cost of islanded production of ‘green urea’ against conventional means. The major price distortions in the Indian coal and gas markets are identified and stripped out to compare the relative costs of urea production. By 2030, urea produced from green ammonia can be cost-competitive with urea produced from natural gas and even coal with a modest price of carbon and when fossil-fuel price distortions are stripped out.