Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023: A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on the hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea. MethodsWe utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models to fit the case incidence during the initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected to calculate the reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used the latest case data and a Bayesian framework to compute the instantaneous effective Rt by applying the Cori et al. method. ResultsDuring the early phase, China demonstrated the highest estimated Rt of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed by South Korea, 2.18 (95% CI: 0.96-3.57); Japan, 1.73 (95% CI: 0.66-3.94); and Taiwan, 1.36 (95% CI: 0.71-3.30). However, by June 30, 2023, estimated Rt dropped below 1.00 in all countries: China at 0.05 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan at 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.15-0.59), South Korea at 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.11-0.42), and Taiwan at 0.41 (95% CrI: 0.31-0.53), indicating the potential decline of the outbreak. ConclusionsOur analysis shows effective containment by each country. It is crucial to sustain effective management to ensure the ultimate eradication of the outbreak.