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Abstract
Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary with time and space. These spatial and temporal variables have been examined separately with some success, but still elude systematic understanding. The present study investigates the covariance of spatial and temporal factors for dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka. The relations identified herein demonstrate spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease and can inform surveillance and control strategies. Multi-satellite remote sensing (RS) data were used to construct an index comprising rainfall, humidity and temperature data. RS data gathered by ALOS/ AVNIR-2 and a digital land cover map were used to extract land usage information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and public databases. RS and other data were integrated and analysed for spatial association analysis and spatial statistics. Our findings show that a combination of ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors can predict spatial and temporal trends in dengue outbreaks.
Highlights
Since the early 1960s, dengue fever has emerged as a major vectorborne viral disease and a significant source of the childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka
Results of temporal analysis Humidity levels tend to rise in early January in the study area, remain at elevated levels during the dry season, and decline with increasing rainfall in early September
Distributions of monthly dengue cases show a compelling degree of variation in step with weather variables
Summary
Since the early 1960s, dengue fever has emerged as a major vectorborne viral disease and a significant source of the childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan health officials reported 44,456 dengue cases in 2012, corresponding to a rate of 220 infections per 100,000 individuals. Disease-promoting factors include: 1) Climate variables of rainfall, humidity and temperature [4]; 2) Changes in land cover, rapid unplanned expansion of urban areas with inadequate housing and infrastructure [5,6,7,8,9,10,11]; and 3) High population density [12]. Temperature increases impact virus development and vector survival, leading to increases in the proportion of infectious vectors, mosquito range and bite rates. As the time required for a virus to become infectious decreases, the virus spreads more efficiently [4]
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