Abstract

The number of models of Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems, particularly for rural electrification, is growing globally. Most approaches to assess the sustainability of these solutions beyond simple techno-economic considerations are comparative in nature, and only allow us to evaluate performance within a set of other interventions. This leaves a gap in our understanding of the conditions for a specific model to be sustainable and whether its replication is likely to succeed. The approach suggested develops a framework to evaluate the sustainability of specific models for energy access individually and proposes analytical methods to illustrate its use. It combines the multi-dimensional analysis over five sustainability dimensions and the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) to assess technical sustainability, extending MTF’s rigorous scoring methodology to the other dimensions. The scores are based on qualitative and quantitative data collected from key stakeholders, taking into account different perspectives and aims. The framework and analytical methods are exemplified using a subset of data collected in over 40 off-grid DRE systems utilizing a common community ownership and hybrid financial structure. The proposed methodology can be used to understand the sustainability conditions of a given approach to energy access and can therefore be used by practitioners and policy makers to develop strategies and guide policies to roll out effective solutions.

Highlights

  • For the first time in 2016, the number of people with no access to electricity around the world declined to below 1.1 billion [1]

  • Driven by falling costs and innovative business models, Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems are shaping the face of energy access, especially in rural areas of the developing world

  • Building on the work done to date, this paper reveals some of the gaps in the multi-dimensional frameworks and proposes a novel approach to analyze specific models of intervention singularly

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Summary

Introduction

For the first time in 2016, the number of people with no access to electricity around the world declined to below 1.1 billion [1]. Driven by falling costs and innovative business models, Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems are shaping the face of energy access, especially in rural areas of the developing world. Many approaches have been developed to evaluate the sustainability of DRE systems, they are largely designed to compare the performances of different business models and technologies [2,7,8]. To the best of our knowledge, approaches that analyze the effectiveness of different types of interventions singularly and the conditions under which each can sustain and be scaled are lacking. If we are to achieve the global sustainability target of universal electrification by 2030, it is crucial to develop tools that enable the identification of scalable models of energy access and reveal the conditions for their impactful and lasting replication

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