Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

Abstract

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).