Assessing the spatiotemporal socioeconomic flood vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed

Abstract

Flood events are one of the most destructive and yet increasingly frequent natural hazards causing a considerable amount of economic losses in the United States (US). The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to flood hazards. The representation of spatiotemporal distributions of the agricultural damage and the vulnerability of the agricultural communities are essential for flood risk management. Therefore, this study investigates spatiotemporal Socioeconomic flood vulnerability of the agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed (PRW), where corn and soybeans cultivation are one of the important agricultural activities. In this context, a combination of the widely used flood damage estimation tool HAZUS-MH and the county-based Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI) were utilized for the vulnerability assessment. The spatial distribution of agricultural communities vulnerable to flood was evaluated for the extreme and average damage conditions for 365 days along with the monthly average damage from a 100-year flood event. The maximum crop damage and most likely months to experience major flood events were found in the same temporal periods. The spatial distributions of damage and SOVI assessments suggested that the most vulnerable agricultural communities (Highland (VA) and Prince George’s (MD)) did not experience high flood damages in any scenario. The agricultural community in Shenandoah County was the most vulnerable in September and October, which has the highest flood probability. This high risk that is spatiotemporally highlighted can aid decision-makers regarding the resource allocation for mitigation efforts in the PRW. Our method can potentially be replicated throughout the country, thus protecting vulnerable agricultural communities.