Assessing the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide in London, Ontario

Abstract

Land use regression (LUR) models have been widely used to characterize the spatial distribution of urban air pollution and estimate exposure in epidemiologic studies. However, spatial patterns of air pollution vary greatly between cities due to local source type and distribution. London, Ontario, Canada, is a medium-sized city with relatively few and isolated industrial point sources, which allowed the study to focus on the contribution of different transportation sectors to urban air pollution. This study used LUR models to estimate the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and to identify local sources influencing NO2 concentrations in London, ON. Passive air sampling was conducted at 50 locations throughout London over a 2-week period in May–June 2010. NO2 concentrations at the monitored locations ranged from 2.8 to 8.9 ppb, with a median of 5.2 ppb. Industrial land use, dwelling density, distance to highway, traffic density, and length of railways were significant predictors of NO2 concentrations in the final LUR model, which explained 78% of NO2 variability in London. Traffic and dwelling density explained most of the variation in NO2 concentrations, which is consistent with LUR models developed in other Canadian cities. We also observed the importance of local characteristics. Specifically, 17% of the variation was explained by distance to highways, which included the impacts of heavily traveled corridors transecting the southern periphery of the city. Two large railway yards and railway lines throughout central areas of the city explained 9% of NO2 variability. These results confirm the importance of traditional LUR variables and highlight the importance of including a broader array of local sources in LUR modeling. Finally, future analyses will use the model developed in this study to investigate the association between ambient air pollution and cardiovascular disease outcomes, including plaque burden, cholesterol, and hypertension. Implications: Monitoring and modeling of NO2 throughout the city of London represents an important step toward assessing air pollution health effects in a mid-sized Canadian city. The study supports the introduction of railways to LUR modeling of NO2. Railways explained approximately 9% of the variability in ambient NO2 concentrations in London, which suggests that local sources captured by land-use indicators may contribute to the efficacy of LUR models. These findings provide insights relevant to other medium and smaller sized cities with similar land use and transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, London is a central hub for medical research and treatment in southwestern Ontario, with facilities such as the Robarts Research Institute, London Regional Cancer Program (LRCP), and Stroke Prevention & Atherosclerosis Research Centre (SPARC). The models developed in this study will provide estimates of exposure for future analyses examining air pollution health effects in this data-rich population.