Abstract
This paper highlights the tension between advocacy for ‘Blue growth’ in maritime policy and efforts to safeguard future economic growth via the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. In 2015, policy-makers withdrew three of four proposed Marine Conservation Zones (MCZs) in the Irish Sea from consideration for designation, due to concerns that they could significantly impact on the fisheries sector in Northern Ireland because they overlap with prawn fishing grounds in the Irish Sea. Although research has quantified the potential impact upon fishing vessels, none has quantified the impact upon the fisheries sector nor assessed the significance of this impact. Arguably, MCZ designations (or lack thereof) based on the ‘significance’ of an impact require robust underpinning evidence. This paper reports the findings of an Economic Impact Assessment, which has quantified the impact of a decline in landings upon the Northern Ireland fisheries sector and regional economy (data which is currently absent from the evidence base for the MCZ designation process in England). It finds that this will incur job losses in three fishing ports in Northern Ireland, but is unlikely to have a significant impact upon Northern Ireland's fisheries sector and regional economy in terms of jobs and Gross Value Added (GVA). In the worst case, the resulting economic impact is a decrease of £1.05–1.12m/year GVA in Northern Ireland, which is 1.1% of the contribution of fishing and fish processing to the regional economy. Economic significance assessments, using this methodology, may be useful in supporting the evidence base underpinning MCZ designation and other aspects of marine planning.
Highlights
1.1 Over recent years, there has been an unprecedented growth in marine regulation
This economic impact assessment1 (Econ IA) quantifies the impact of a decline in landings upon the Northern Ireland fisheries sector and regional economy
5.1 If these four Marine Conservation Zones (MCZs) were to be designated, and bottom-towed gear prohibited within them, the economic impact is estimated to be a decrease of £1.05-1.12m/year (GVA) in Northern Ireland
Summary
1.1 Over recent years, there has been an unprecedented growth in marine regulation. It previously comprised mainly elements of general law and some sectoral regulation. Econ IA has been used to quantify the wider repercussive effects of MPAs on regional economies (e.g. for the Gulf of Maine in Dalton 2004; the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary in Perez and Ruth, 2002) and in terms of restrictions on marine resources (e.g. upon fisheries in Leeworthy & Whiley 2000; Jin et al, 2003; Teh, Teh & Sumaila 2011; SurísRegueiro et al, 2014) It appears that this has arisen primarily to capture the concerns of industry (indirect costs, as well as direct costs) regarding MPAs and for policy makers to consider this evidence in their decisions
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