Assessing the security implication of Bitcoin exchange rates

Abstract

Cryptographic assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum provide distributed consensus with a Proof-of-Work protocol and incentive-based engineering. The consensus is inherently dependent on the value of the asset due to the incentives. The value of these assets frequently fluctuates, which in turn influences the incentive component of the consensus mechanism. For a proof-of-work consensus to be secure, the participation reward must have a perceived real-world value. The future of this perception is not at all clear. The recent 70% drop in the value of Bitcoin versus the US Dollar may be precipitating a circle of declining security of the platform which we explore in depth in this paper. In this paper, we analyze the impact of fluctuations on the security of Bitcoin now, and in the future. We introduce a novel method to examine the rationale of a miner based on the price fluctuations. We integrate our method with an existing security evaluation framework and simulator. Using our approach, we determine and report on the impact of the value of the cryptographic asset on the security of the blockchain given the miner’s rationale. Our method allows us to evaluate the impact of different methods of incentive manipulation such as reduced block-reward and transaction fees, by simulation.