Abstract
The live poultry trade is thought to play an important role in the spread and maintenance of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HP AIVs) in Asia. Despite an abundance of small-scale observational studies, the role of the poultry trade in disseminating AIV over large geographic areas is still unclear, especially for developing countries with complex poultry production systems. Here we combine virus genomes and reconstructed poultry transportation data to measure and compare the spatial spread in China of three key subtypes of AIV: H5N1, H7N9, and H5N6. Although it is difficult to disentangle the contribution of confounding factors, such as bird migration and spatial distance, we find evidence that the dissemination of these subtypes among domestic poultry is geographically continuous and likely associated with the intensity of the live poultry trade in China. Using two independent data sources and network analysis methods, we report a regional-scale community structure in China that might explain the spread of AIV subtypes in the country. The identification of this structure has the potential to inform more targeted strategies for the prevention and control of AIV in China.
Highlights
The live poultry trade is thought to play an important role in the spread and maintenance of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HP avian influenza viruses (AIVs)) in Asia
Standard phylogeographic analyses revealed evidence that AIV subtypes in domestic poultry have spread between geographically proximate locations, and indicated that the level of trade in live poultry is an important contributor to the dissemination of three AIV lineages
We used geographic modeling of the poultry trade network to identify five live poultry trade communities that represent the large-scale structure of the poultry trade in China, and confirmed the relevance of this structure to AIV spread in China using two complementary approaches
Summary
The live poultry trade is thought to play an important role in the spread and maintenance of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HP AIVs) in Asia. It is difficult to disentangle the contribution of confounding factors, such as bird migration and spatial distance, we find evidence that the dissemination of these subtypes among domestic poultry is geographically continuous and likely associated with the intensity of the live poultry trade in China. Using two independent data sources and network analysis methods, we report a regional-scale community structure in China that might explain the spread of AIV subtypes in the country. The identification of this structure has the potential to inform more targeted strategies for the prevention and control of AIV in China.
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