Assessing the risk of rabies re-introduction into the United Kingdom from Eastern European countries

Abstract

There is a public concern of rabies re-introduction to the UK, given the recent changes in pet trade with parts of Eastern Europe and an increase in the movement of puppies. A previously developed quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for rabies introduction into the UK was modified in order to assess the risk from only Eastern European Union member states. The model estimates the annual probability of rabies entering the UK and also the expected number of years between rabies introductions. The change in risk between the original model and the updated model is then assessed. While the risk has increased compared to the previous assessment, the risk still remains low, with a case expected every 317 years (5th and 95th percentile, 193 and 486 years, respectively) and an annual risk of 3.41 × 10−3 (5th and 95th percentile, 2.05 × 10−3 and 5.17 × 10−3, respectively).