Abstract
AbstractUsing species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted the distribution of 170 plant species under different climatic scenarios (current and future climatic conditions) and used this information to create invasion risk maps to identify potential invasion hot spots in California. The risk of invasion by individual species was also assessed using species’ predicted area in combination with some biological traits associated with invasiveness (growth form, reproduction mechanisms, and age of maturity). A higher number of species would find suitable climatic conditions along the coast; the Central Western (CW) and South Western (SW) were ecoregions where a higher number of species were predicted. Overall, hot spots of species distribution were similar under current and future climatic conditions; however, individual species’ predicted area (increase or decrease) was variable depending on the climate change scenario and the greenhouse gas emission. Out of the 170 species assessed, 22% ranked as high-risk species, with herbs, grasses, and vines accounting for 78% within this risk class, and a high proportion (67%) of Asteraceae species ranked as high risk. This study suggests that current climatic conditions of the central and south coastal regions of California would be considered as hot spots of new invasions, and for some species this risk might increase with hotter and drier future climatic conditions.
Highlights
Greater undesirable impacts are expected when regions become more susceptible to the establishment of exotic plant species
We considered the exotic ornamental plant species listed as potential new invaders for California generated by Brusati et al (2014)
The species’ potential distribution under current climatic condition was evaluated in relation to: California total area, number of ecoregions overlapping with predicted area, and the variation of the predicted area relative to the prediction under two future climatic scenarios (GCMs: CNRM and MIROC; RCPs: 4.5 and 8.5)
Summary
Greater undesirable impacts are expected when regions become more susceptible to the establishment of exotic plant species. This study assesses the risk of invasion by exotic ornamental plants in California under climate change conditions This assessment uses a relatively simple methodology and provides a basis and rationale for prioritizing areas and species of potential concern. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used for a diverse range of ecological studies, including biological invasion studies (Guillera-Arroita et al 2015); SDMs use mathematical algorithms to establish a relationship between species’ occurrence data and environmental variables These models can be projected across the environmental space to identify areas likely to have suitable conditions for a particular species; these outputs can be used to support management decisions (Bradley et al 2010; Guisan et al 2013; Mammola and Leroy 2018). We discuss how these results can be used to help prioritize both high-risk areas and species for subsequent management intervention
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