Abstract
Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio . The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak ( = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley ( = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.
Highlights
Bluetongue (BT) is a non-contagious viral arthropod-borne disease of domestic and wild ruminants
Abundance maps based on random forest (RF) modeling showed that the predicted abundances of all four species of veterinary interest are very low along the Senegal River Valley, but very high in the south
The analysis shows that elevation, temperature seasonality (Bio04), cattle density (Cattle), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio06) are the variables that most influence the abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo, respectively
Summary
Bluetongue (BT) is a non-contagious viral arthropod-borne disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The disease is caused by the Bluetongue virus (BTV), a member of the genus Orbivirus. Bluetongue is listed as an important transboundary animal disease by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) [1], and its occurrence in animals must be notified to the OIE. The clinical signs of Bluetongue infection can include fever, edema of the lips, tongue, and head, conjunctivitis, nasal discharge, and pain at mucocutaneous junctions. A series of studies have provided evidence of BTV-8 transplacental transmission in experimental infections in cattle, sheep, and goats [2,3,4], and in-field observations of aborted fetuses [5]. There is evidence that infection in the early stages of fetal development may result in abortion [6]
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