Assessing the risk and effect of climate change with two-layer fuzzy logic-SWARA: A comparative practice in Turkiye

Abstract

Many factors such as population growth, development of industry/technology, and increase in production-consumption disrupt the ecological balance and cause climate change, which is a global problem. Determining the criteria that cause climate change is very important in finding effective solutions to the problem. In the study, the criteria were determined, weighted with a new method, Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), and ranked according to their priorities with two-layer fuzzy logic model. The Fuzzy SWARA method allows the evaluation process, which becomes complicated due to the difficulties and factors experienced in decision-making, to be carried out more effectively and realistically. The risk and effect of climate change in Turkiye were evaluated regionally. However, the developed model also has a wide application area. Research findings revealed that the highest risk/effect of climate change have the Marmara and Central Anatolia regions. The lowest risk region is the Eastern Anatolia. Air pollution, population growth and deforestation have the highest weights. Important suggestions have presented especially for priority criteria. In this way, the factors that should be prioritized in climate change environmental problem solutions have been revealed and will make it easier for researchers and managers to provide more effective management.