Assessing the response of the Great Marsh to sea-level rise: Migration, submersion or survival

Abstract

To survive rising sea level, salt marshes must accrete vertically, migrate laterally, or undergo a combination of the two. If sufficient sediment is available for marsh accretion, the slope of the surrounding area is relatively flat, and edge erosion is minimal, then a marsh can theoretically maintain its areal extent through a combination of vertical accretion and upland expansion. However, in cases where sediment supply is limited and the marsh is backed by steeper slopes, it is unclear whether accretion and inland migration will be sufficient to counteract the combined effects of rising sea level and edge erosion. Given these barriers to marsh expansion, inland migration may not be a viable solution to marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise. We quantify the potential changes in areal extent under future sea-level rise scenarios for the Great Marsh in northern Massachusetts, where the marsh has a limited suspended sediment supply and relatively steep upland topography. Salt marsh is identified and classified into low or high marsh using LiDAR elevation and validated using aerial photography and vegetation surveys. We generate a simple 1D-H model using locally-measured accretion rates and their relationship to marsh elevation, to determine change in elevation and dominant plant species over time. A maximum inorganic sediment available to the marsh is prescribed for certain model scenarios to test the impact of sediment limitation. This limit is calculated based on the volumetric contribution of mineral sediment to the present marsh accretion rates. Predicted changes in marsh area over a 100-year model period are determined using the surrounding elevation gradients, calculated sediment availability, projected edge erosion, and local rates of sea-level rise (SLR). The two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) SLR scenarios used are based on the most recent IPCC report and also include the latest information concerning responses to ice sheet melting in Greenland and Antarctica. We find that as the rate of sea-level rise increases, the areal extent of the marsh decreases due to a lack of the suspended sediment needed to maintain marsh surface elevation and the inability of the marsh to encroach upon steep upland slopes. By comparing a model assuming constant accretion rates to one with mineral sediment-limited accretion, we find that when sediment if limited, marsh habitat conversion and loss occur earlier and more rapidly.