Assessing the resilience of stormwater ponds under climate change: A case study on Grace Lake, Florida, unveiling flood control and water quality implications

Abstract

Stormwater ponds have emerged as a crucial solution in Florida to accommodate excess runoff from new developments and mitigate environmental pollution. Climate change affects rainfall and evapotranspiration, likely altering the hydrologic process. It is unclear how effective stormwater ponds will be in a changing climate, especially where surface water and groundwater interaction is highly expected. To address these concerns, this study employs a fully coupled surface water and groundwater model that was calibrated for the Grace Lake, located in central Florida. Utilizing the Multi-Model Ensemble method and GCM data, future rainfall projections were generated for the mid-century (2040–2070). The results indicate a projected 13 % increase in rainfall for the mid-century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5). This increase led to a rise of 13 cm in the seasonal high water elevation of Grace Lake, reducing its reliability as a flood control mechanism by 13 %. Moreover, downstream areas from the lake are expected to experience higher flood stages in the future, with the duration of road flooding extending from less than three days (base period) to approximately seven days (future period). This increase in surface runoff raises concerns for water quality, with nitrogen and phosphorus loads projected to surge up to 67 % in the future period.