Abstract
This study applied ratio correction factor (RCF) optimization to calibrate the daily storage of agricultural reservoirs located in ungauged catchments that lack stream flow data. Using Run theory, we then assessed the impacts of climate change on the resilience of agricultural reservoir operations during reservoir drought conditions. First, we optimized the RCFs of inflow and outflow in three agricultural reservoirs in Korea using limited measurement data from 2008 to 2017; the results showed high performance regarding the simulation of daily reservoir storage. Second, we simulated daily storage volume in reservoirs from 2018 to 2099, using future climate change data, and analyzed the duration and intensity of reservoir drought conditions, which indicated that the storage capacity is under the critical value. Without calibration, the correlation between the simulated and measured reservoir water volumes was very low, but the correlation increased after calibration of the simulated water volumes. A linear relationship between the simulated and measured volumes was observed with a correlation coefficient value of 0.9, indicating that the simulated reservoir values after calibration closely match the measured values. In addition, the maximum intensity of reservoir drought in the Kicheon reservoir was determined to be 486,000 m3 before calibration but 506,000 m3 after calibration. The duration results showed that long-term reservoir drought conditions will be observed more often in the future owing to climate change, and this could be a negative factor affecting the resilience of reservoir operations.
Highlights
The main objectives or strategies of water management are to enable supply of freshwater at the appropriate time and place
The reservoir water volume measurements were compared with the simulated water volumes to analyze the efficiency of the ratio correction factor (RCF) calibration method
Agricultural reservoirs are important water resource management facilities that connect water resources and food security, but they are small in size and serve only one purpose: irrigation water supply
Summary
The main objectives or strategies of water management are to enable supply of freshwater at the appropriate time and place. The increased frequency of heavy rainfall events undermines the reliability of rain as a source of irrigation water, thereby increasing the importance of finding a more secure supply of irrigation water to ensure food security. To address this issue, many studies have recently been conducted to investigate changes in irrigation water requirements under climate change conditions. Water 2020, 12, 1618 systems, such as reservoirs, to climate change will only increase, and this aspect should be considered from a holistic perspective; flood control, drought resilience, ecological flow, and the various demands for water in a given area should be taken into account. The evaluation of climate change impact on agricultural reservoirs has been identified as a critical research topic because of the need to ensure an adequate supply of irrigation water, and many studies have been conducted on this topic
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