Assessing the renewable energy investment risk factors for sustainable development in Turkey

Abstract

In the wake of Paris agreement, global economies have been putting their full efforts in mitigation and adaption to limit the global temperature within 2 °C higher than the pre-industrial level. Redirection of investment flows to renewable energy technologies (RETs) is paramount to achieve the goals set in global climate agreement. The Turkish government is determined to attract investment in RETs for cleaner energy production and sustainable socio-economic development in Turkey. However, it is very challenging to substitute environmentally harmful traditional energy systems with renewable energy production and supply. Investing in and developing renewable energy projects (REPs) are posed to various inherent risks. Assessment and analysis of risk factors of renewable energy investments (REIs) are indispensable for a practical and profound policy guideline for mitigation. This study provides a Multi-Criteria Decision Methodology (MCDM) based three-stage decision framework to assess and examine the risk factors of REIs in Turkey. The first stage is the identification of risk factors of REI using the Delphi method. The second stage is the assessment of identified risk factors of REI by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The third stage is the evaluation and prioritization of strategies to overcome risk factors of REI projects by using Fuzzy Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (FWASPAS). The Delphi method unveiled 6 major risk factors with 23 sub-risk factors. Results of AHP analysis unfolded economic & business risk as a major risk factor. The FWASPAS analysis concluded a comprehensive and explicit explanation of the RET choices to be the most suitable of six strategies to deal with the investment risk factors for sustainable development in Turkey.