Abstract

The blue-and-yellow macaw (Ara ararauna) is suffering from higher roadkill rates (RK) at the Emas National Park (ENP), an important Brazilian National Park in the Cerrado biome. This species is also a victim of nest poaching for illegal trade. We modeled the blue-and-yellow macaw population’s viability in ENP and how this viability is affected by roadkill and nest poaching. We hereby report that the species is critically at risk and could be extinct in about a decade when considering both threats. Without considering any threat, 150 individuals are necessary to maintain a viable population. When individuals are harvested at a roadkill rate of 0.008 individuals/km/year and at twice this level, the viability figures increase to 4500 and 7500 birds, respectively. For nest poaching, we estimated that 2000 individuals are required to maintain a viable population. When both threats are present, 5000 individuals are necessary. The dynamics of the population are highly sensitive to the age at which females reproduce for the first time and the proportion of reproducing adult females, followed by the rate of adult survival. Our model demonstrates how even a non-threatened highly mobile species, such as the blue-and-yellow macaw, may be at risk due to human activities.

Highlights

  • Conservation biology has two main goals: assessment and management of biological diversity [1]

  • The Emas National Park (ENP) is located in the southwest of the State of Goiás, it borders the states of Mato hGGarr)ooassssnToodhaeainnsEddoNnMMPeaaiotstofoltoGhGcrearotofseessdwsooidnBdortoahSzeuSiullsio(laFun(iFtghNiugwarueteris1eot)n1.oa)Tf.lhtTPhehaepreSkaptsrakattrehhkaoathsf eaGansotcoaioátmtasol,ptaiatarlebsaasoreroesdfaet1hor3sef2t1d0h3ikef2fm0setr2aketm(ne1st32 t1o(y31fp83M6e1s3ah8toao6f) Canedrriasdoonewoitfhthinetfhewe sBtartaeziolifaGnoNiáasti,osnuaclhPaasrkcsatmhaptoelnimcopmop,acsasmesptohesudjioff,evreenretdtyapseasnodf rCiperarraidaon f[nwTp3oarhi7rettee]his.oseiptnTnnsaahttrs[lhek3tpe7hEias]seN.rthaklTPatosehr.mgpeoerefspeGttsaoenornkui8átm5ssis,sbtsphheuereoccmohliaefeasresgntoeocdfsaemt8mm5napiusmcopmsmleipbmcaeeicelprsisoeo[s,o3fcf8oea]fmnm,bd3api5remod3msmsbiuaciajrmoldss,posv,[en3ecagr8inee]Bdd,sra3ao8s5z8f3ialbrnibeaidrpindrtrdnsiilpsaea,atsmirao[ina3nodn7na]lgf.8op8TBraehrrrsakeetzspsE.it[lNi3ila7ePn]s

  • We evaluated the effect of reproductive and mortality parameters on stochastic growth rate of the blue-and-yellow macaw population in ENP

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Summary

Introduction

Conservation biology has two main goals: assessment and management of biological diversity [1]. The assessment involves defining the current status of a population, predicting its future trends, and identifying risks to its persistence. Management encompasses identifying and implementing solutions that ensure the population’s persistence. In this sense, population viability analyses have been commonly used to assess the impact of human activities upon natural populations [2,3,4]. Wildlife roadkill is a threat to the survival of several species [6,7]. Roadkill data combined with population viability analyses can promote greater knowledge about the possible impacts of highways on a given species/population [8]. While for some species, the effects of roadkill can be insignificant, such as for small rodents in Spain [9], for others, roadkill can be a threat to their existence, including the jaguar [10], the giant anteater [4,11], and the maned wolf [12]

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