Abstract
The present study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Maldivian tourism, highlighting the loss of tourists and tourism earnings for the period 2020Q1 to 2021Q2 and analyses the recovery rate of inbound tourists’ arrivals post border re-opening (i.e., 2020Q3 – 2021Q2). Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was employed to generate monthly forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The results indicate an estimated loss of 1.9 million tourists between 2020Q1 and 2021Q2. A massive drop in tourist arrivals caused an estimated loss of USD 3.5 billion in tourism earnings by June 2021. Results further indicate that with an average monthly recovery rate of 3%, inbound arrivals have recovered 34% of forecasted levels and 40% of 2019 levels by June 2021. The measures implemented by the government of Maldives played a vital role in the recovery of inbound tourism. However, the rebound of tourists has not reached the desired levels except for the arrivals from Russia. Therefore, additional strategies must be implemented for the quick revival of the Maldivian tourism industry. This study expands and enriches tourism management knowledge in the face of a massive crisis highlighting important managerial and policy implications for reviving the tourism industry of the Maldives.
Highlights
The global tourism industry is the fastest growing and single largest industry in the world
The present study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Maldivian tourism, highlighting the loss of tourists and tourism earnings for the period 2020Q1 to 2021Q2 and analyses the recovery rate of inbound tourists’ arrivals post border re-opening (i.e., 2020Q3 – 2021Q2)
This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Maldivian inbound tourism, highlighting the loss of tourists and tourism earnings, and analyses the recovery rate of inbound tourist arrivals from source markets post border re-opening
Summary
The global tourism industry is the fastest growing and single largest industry in the world. Tour operators and tourist attractions ceased operation, and closed their doors Tourists changed their travel plans and even reduced travel due to concerns about perceived risks of the pandemic (Page et al, 2012; Wilks & Page, 2003). This was the case in 2020, as the total number of tourist arrivals globally fell by 72% between January and October compared to the same period in 2019 with an estimated loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, which is ten times more than the loss caused under the global economic crisis in 2009 (UNWTO, 2020). Asia and the Pacific’s region suffered the largest declines in international
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