Assessing the quality of budget risk management of the subjects of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Subject. The article explores indicators for budget risk management in the subjects of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The aim is to develop a system of indicators to assess the quality of budget risk management, to create a methodology for quality management assessment and test it on the case of 85 subjects, to build a rating for the quality of budget risk management in 2020. Methods. The study rests on creating a model for assessing the quality of budget risk management on the basis of 18 mathematical and statistical criteria and their testing on budget data from 85 federal subjects for 2020, and the deductive approach. Results. I formulated and justified indicators of analysis that demonstrate the level of readiness of the budget of Russian subjects to accept budget risks. The proposed indicators are logically structured into groups and detailed by data source for evaluation. The system of indicators is incorporated into the existing methodology created by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The results of the analysis are presented as a rating of subjects of the Russian Federation based on the aggregate assessment of the quality of budget risk management. Conclusions. The offered methodology may serve as a supplement to the methodology for assessing the quality of regional finance management created by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. It may also help evaluate decisions on proactive risk management and mitigation of consequences of risk events in regional budget utilization.