Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis

Abstract

Background—The number of studies on padel has grown significantly in recent years, reflecting the growing importance of the sport. However, more research is still needed on a comprehensive analysis of performance indicators. This study had a double objective: on the one hand, to analyze the probability of winning a point as a function of several variables and, on the other hand, to develop a match analysis. Methods—A total of 980 points from the Menorca 2020 World Padel Tour Master Final Men’s category were examined using observational methodology. The participants were the eight pairs who competed in the final rounds of the tournament. To obtain the results, various analytical techniques were used, such as descriptive analysis and the chi-square test, with a significance level of p < 0.05. Results—The results indicated that most points were initiated on the first serve (88.5%) and were most often won by the serving pair (59.3%). Short rallies predominated (42.2%), with the serving pair most likely to win the point (71%). As the rally became longer, the probability of winning the point decreased, reaching 57% for medium rallies and 47% for long rallies. Almost half of the points were completed in less than 10 s, with an average point duration of 15 s. Most points were finished from the middle area and near the net (41.4% and 36%, respectively), mainly by smashes (25.9%) or volleys (28.9%), with the cross-court trajectory being the most effective. Conclusions—Short rallies (0–6 shots) were the most common, with an average point duration of approximately 15 s. Most points ended with a shot from the middle of the court, using a volley or a smash with a cross-court trajectory. There is a clear relationship between proximity to the net on the final shot and an increased probability of winning the point.