Abstract
Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climateâbased range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics âakekeâe (Loxops caeruleirostris) and âakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by endâofâcentury due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kauaâi endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climateâbased ranges of âakekeâe and âakikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through endâofâcentury, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kauaâi endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climateâbased ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climateâbased ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climateâvulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.
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