Assessing the potential of satellite-based precipitation estimates for flood frequency analysis in ungauged or poorly gauged tributaries of China’s Yangtze River basin

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is critical for water resources engineering projects, particularly the design of hydraulic structures such as dams and reservoirs. However, it is often difficult to implement FFA in ungauged or poorly gauged basins because of the lack of consistent and long-term records of streamflow observations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the utility of satellite-based precipitation estimates for performing FFA in two presumably ungauged tributaries, the Jialing and Tuojiang Rivers, of the upper Yangtze River. Annual peak flow series were simulated using the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model. Flood frequency was estimated by fitting the Pearson type III distribution of both observed and modeled streamflow with historic floods. Comparison of satellite-based precipitation products with a ground-based daily precipitation dataset for the period 2002–2014 reveals that 3B42V7 outperformed 3B42RT. The 3B42V7 product also shows consistent reliability in streamflow simulation and FFA (e.g., relative errors −20%−5% in the Jialing River). The results also indicate that complex terrain, drainage area, and reservoir construction are important factors that impact hydrologic model performance. The larger basin (156,736km2) is more likely to produce satisfactory results than the small basin (19,613km2) under similar circumstances (e.g., Jialing/Tuojiang calibrated by 3B42V7 for the calibration period: NSCE=0.71/0.56). Using the same calibrated parameter sets from the entire Jialing River basin, the 3B42V7/3B42RT-driven hydrologic model performs better for two tributaries of the Jialing River (e.g., for the calibration period, NSCE=0.71/0.60 in the Qujiang River basin and 0.54/0.38 in the Fujiang River basin) than for the upper mainstem of the Jialing River (NSCE=0.34/0.32), which has more cascaded reservoirs with all these tributaries treated as ungauged basins for model validation. Overall, this study underscores that the simulated flood quantiles from satellite precipitation-driven streamflow are generally consistent with observations, demonstrating the potential hydrologic utility of satellite precipitation data for FFA in the Jialing River basin and possibly other poorly gauged basins.