Assessing the Potential of Persistent Organic Chemicals for Long-Range Transport and Accumulation in Polar Regions

Abstract

A zonally averaged global distribution model is used to identify chemical partitioning properties and emission scenarios that favor enrichment in Arctic ecosystems. An immediate and a long-term Arctic Contamination Potential (ACP) are defined as the fraction of the total amount in global surface media that is in the Arctic after 1 and 10 years of steady emissions with a generic zonal distribution. Simulations for a two-dimensional “space” of hypothetical chemical property combinations indicate that the ACP of a perfectly persistent organic chemical is determined by a complex set of processes but tends to be higher for two combinations of partitioning properties: relatively volatile (log KOA log KAW > −0.5) substances and substances which are semivolatile (log KOA 6.5−10) and relatively hydrophobic (log KAW > −3). Very volatile chemicals with log KOA −0.5 remain in the atmosphere even under Arctic temperature conditions, whereas very involatile chemical with...