Assessing the Potential Impact of the Declaration of Istanbul 2008 on Internet Reporting of Human Organ Transplantation-Related Crimes Using Interrupted Time Series Analysis and Meta-Analysis Approaches

Abstract

BackgroundA severe shortage in donor organs is the major driver for organ transplantation-related crimes. The Declaration of Istanbul 2008 (DOI) was created to stop such crimes. We investigated the impact of DOI on Internet reporting of transplantation-related crimes. MethodsWe conducted Google Advanced Searches to collect data on “kidney trade,” “kidney sale,” “organ trafficking,” and “transplant tourism” in 15 original participant and 10 nonparticipant countries, 6 years prior through 8 years after the promulgation of DOI. The data were normalized for population and transformed to a logarithmic scale. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was applied to estimate the changes in slopes of the outcome variables before and after DOI, and then the overall intervention impact was calculated by meta-analysis. ResultsThe combined results indicated that the overall impact of DOI on the reporting of “organ trafficking” and “transplant tourism” was statistically negative (reporting reduced significantly) as intended but on “kidney sale” and “kidney trade” was statistically positive (reporting increased significantly), and the increase was higher in the nonparticipant countries compared to the participant countries. The rate of reporting on “transplant tourism” declined in the participant countries more pronouncedly than in the nonparticipant countries. ConclusionsDOI has a positive impact on the reporting of “organ trafficking” and “transplant tourism” but not on the reporting of “kidney sale” and “kidney trade.” The increased reporting of “kidney sale” and “kidney trade” can be indicative of an impact of DOI on public awareness and increased reporting of the residual transplantation-related crimes.