Assessing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in the Artibonite Valley of Haiti Using the CSM-CERES-Rice Model

Abstract

HighlightsRice yield decreased in the spring-summer and summer-autumn seasons and increased in the winter-spring season.The average annual rice yield in the Artibonite Valley is expected to decrease.MarkSim climate data linked with DSSAT provide a means to simulate climate change impacts on crop yield.Abstract. Rice (Oryza sativa) is one of the major crops in the world and one of the most consumed agricultural products in Haiti, with the main production area in the Artibonite Valley. Crop management, poor soil conditions, and weather uncertainty affect rice production in this region. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change on rice yield in the Artibonite Valley of Haiti for future periods (near-term: 2010-2039 and mid-century: 2040-2069) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) defined by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Crop Estimation Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model of the Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) cropping system model was used to perform the simulations using local soil characteristics, meteorological data, and crop management following model calibration with local experimental data. Temperature (maximum and minimum) was predicted to increase during all three rice-growing seasons (spring-summer, summer-autumn, and winter-spring). Under both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5), the simulation results indicated that the ensemble-mean rice yield decreased during the spring-summer and summer-autumn seasons (by 5.1% to 6.6% and by 5.4% to 8.3%, respectively) and increased during the winter-spring season (by 2.3% to 3.6%). Although yield increased during the winter-spring season, the average annual yield was predicted to decrease by 3.6% to 7.1% and by 4.2% to 9.6% for the near-term and mid-century climate periods, respectively. These findings could assist with the implementation of adaptation strategies to mitigate the projected negative impact of climate change on rice production in Haiti. Keywords: Cropping system model, DSSAT, Food security, Global climate model, Rice production, Systems analysis.