Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Landslide Phenomena Affecting Pyroclastic Covers in Nocera Area (Southern Italy)

Abstract

The effects of Climate Changes (CC) on natural hazards induced by weather forcing represent an issue which has been widely debated in the last years. Climate projections allowed to detect clear indications about the future trend of the main atmospheric forcing although affected by significant uncertainties concerning the magnitude. However, the crucial role played by the specific geomorphological contexts makes much more challenging understanding how such variations could affect occurrence and magnitude of landslide hazards. These factors help understanding because it is often unreliable carrying out assessments on large areas but is often necessary trying to evaluate the potential effects of CC on geo-hydrological hazards at slope scale. The main aim of this paper is the definition of a framework for the evaluation of potential variations of occurrences of landslide events affecting slopes of Nocera Inferiore (Southern Italy) under the effect of CC. Such slopes have been affected in recent years, in several occasions, by flowslide phenomena inducing large economic losses and fatalities. The framework, consisting of two macro components, is tested to check its predictive capability of landslide behavior. It is then applied to provide a prediction of “potential” events for near and long time horizon scenarios. The study highlights potential variations (increases) in triggering frequency under the effect of different concentration scenarios and time horizons.