Assessing the Potential Distribution of Asian Gypsy Moth in Canada: A Comparison of Two Methodological Approaches

Vivek Srivastava,Verena C. Griess,Melody A. Keena

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-57020-7

Vivek Srivastava, Verena C. Griess + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57020-7

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Abstract

Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is one of the world’s worst hardwood defoliating invasive alien species. It is currently spreading across North America, damaging forest ecosystems and posing a significant economic threat. Two subspecies L. d. asiatica and L. d. japonica, collectively referred to as Asian gypsy moth (AGM) are of special concern as they have traits that make them better invaders than their European counterpart (e.g. flight capability of females). We assessed the potential distribution of AGM in Canada using two presence-only species distribution models, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP). In addition, we mapped AGM potential future distribution under two climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) while implementing dispersal constraints using the cellular automation model MigClim. MaxEnt had higher AUC, pAUC and sensitivity scores (0.82/1.40/1.00) when compared to GARP (0.70/1.26/0.9), indicating better discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for AGM. The models indicated that suitable conditions for AGM were present in the provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The human influence index was the variable found to contribute the most in predicting the distribution of AGM. These model results can be used to identify areas at risk for this pest, to inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions.

Highlights

Forest Invasive Alien Species (FIAS) are of serious concern to biodiversity around the world and their impacts on native plant species, communities, and on associated environments are widely recognized to have both economic and ecological impacts[1,2]
Several detections of Asian gypsy moth (AGM) egg masses on vessels coming from Asian ports have occurred in Canada which have led to the implementation of international phytosanitary measures to prevent AGM establishment that are significantly reducing the risk of invasion
To support improved future surveillance of AGM, we investigated the null hypothesis that there would be no difference in the potential habitat of AGM under changing climates

Summary

Introduction

Forest Invasive Alien Species (FIAS) are of serious concern to biodiversity around the world and their impacts on native plant species, communities, and on associated environments are widely recognized to have both economic and ecological impacts[1,2]. Japonica here after collectively referred to as Asian gypsy moth (AGM) have a broad host range (over 600 plant species, including conifers) and the females are flight capable[15]. They have an affinity to fly towards light sources and strong dispersal traits, which makes them a greater threat than their. Peterson et al.[14] used the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) whereas Paini et al.[13] used CLIMEX to map global climate suitability for AGM These studies looked at global species distributions of AGM with no study focused on a Canada-wide scale. The A1B scenario is characterized by a very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid use of more efficient technology whereas, the A2 scenario refers to a heterogeneous world with high population growth and less concern for economic development[24]

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