Assessing the performance of two gridded weather data for sugarcane crop simulations with a process-based model in Center-South Brazil

Abstract

High-quality measured weather data (MWD) are essential for long-term and in-season crop model applications. When MWD is not available, one alternative for crop simulations is to employ gridded weather data (GWD), which needs to be evaluated a priori. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the impact of weather data from two GWD sources (NASA and XAVIER), in the way that they are available for end users, on simulating sugarcane crop performance within the APSIM-Sugar model at traditional sites where sugarcane is grown in Center-South Brazil, compared to simulations with MWD. Besides, this study also evaluated the impact of replacing GWD rainfall by the site-specific measured data on such simulations. A common sugarcane cropping system was repeatedly simulated between 1997 and 2015 for different combinations of climate input. Both NASA and XAVIER appear to be interesting for applications that only require temperature and solar radiation for predictions, such as crop phenology and potential yield. Nonetheless, GWD should be used with caution for crop model applications that rely on accurate estimation of crop water balance, canopy development, and biomass accumulation, at least with crop models that run at a daily time-step. The replacement of gridded rainfall with measured rainfall was pivotal for improving sugarcane simulations, as observed for cane yield, by increasing both agreement (NASA d index from 0.67 to 0.90; XAVIER d from 0.73 to 0.93) and R2 (NASA from 0.35 to 0.76; XAVIER from 0.43 to 0.79) and reducing root mean square errors (RMSE) from 32.8 to 16.3 t/ha when simulated with other variables of NASA data and from 27.9 to 12.7 t/ha when having XAVIER data as input. Therefore, while using both GWD sets without any correction, it is recommended to replace gridded rainfall by measured values, whenever possible, to improve sugarcane simulations in Center-South Brazil.