Assessing the Landscape Ecological Risks of Land-Use Change.

Abstract

In recent years, a changing global climate and the continuous expansion of the intensity and scope of human activities have led to regional differentiation in the surface landscape. This has caused numerous ecological risks under multiple pressure sources, gradually becoming an important factor restricting the sustainable development of economic and social health. With the continuous development of the social economy, land use and associated ecological risks will inevitably change. According to the forest transformation theory and the environmental Kuznets curve, we put forward the theoretical framework of ecological risk transformation of land-use change and took Zhangjiachuan County (China) as an example to verify it. Therefore, on the basis of Landsat satellite data, this paper used landscape structures to calculate an ecological risk index, and evaluated the ecological risk of land-use changes through pattern index analyses. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the ecological risk index of land-use change in Zhangjiachuan County exhibited an increasing and then decreasing trend, showing an overall "inverted U-shaped" trend of change consistent with the transformation theoretical framework of ecological risks of land use change. Secondly, in terms of patterns, the ecological risk of land-use change in Zhangjiachuan County showed a distribution feature of high in the west and low in the east. In 2000, high-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the central and northern areas, while low-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern areas. From 2000 to 2015, the medium-risk areas expanded to the west and midwest, and the geographic centers of the risk areas were slightly offset. From 2015 to 2020, the overall pattern of ecological risk areas was basically the same as that of the previous stage, but the medium-risk areas were slightly reduced. In terms of quantity, from 2000 to 2015, the areas of the lowest risk level and low risk level decreased, while the areas of medium risk level, high risk level, and the highest risk level increased; from 2015 to 2020, the areas of the lowest risk level and low risk level increased, and the areas of medium risk level, high risk level, and highest risk level decreased. Lastly, the spatial aggregation of ecological risks in Zhangjiachuan County weakened slightly from 2000 to 2005, gradually increased from 2005 to 2015, and then slightly weakened from 2015 to 2020.