Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning

Abstract

Recent crises have demonstrated that modern organisations require strong foresight capabilities, such as scenario planning, to provide decision makers with a means of managing unpredictable situations and avoiding catastrophic consequences. Despite the success of scenario planning in some large corporations, there has been a distinct lack of empirical research activity surrounding scenario planning, especially in the context of crisis management. This paper takes a methodologically rigorous approach by reporting on an empirical project that sought to understand the role of creativity and decision-making as drivers for scenario planning quality during a series of crisis exercises. The project applied a pre- and post-experimental design that used a training intervention to elicit a change in aspects of scenario planning quality during a series of simulated crises. A significant change was elicited and the role creativity and decision-making play in that change has been articulated. This paper seeks to contribute to the existing empirical futures studies research and stimulate other futures scholars to consider additional methods to enhance the scientific rigour of empirical research in this field and explore the drivers and measures of scenario planning quality.