Assessing the Influence of Compounding Factors to the Water Level Variation of Erhai Lake

Shengrui Wang,Tao Wu,Bo Yao,Zhaokui Ni,Huaxin Wu

doi:10.3390/w13010029

Shengrui Wang, Tao Wu + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/w13010029

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Abstract

Climate change and human activities cause lake water level (WL) fluctuations to exceed natural thresholds, with implications for the available water resources. Studies that explore WL change trends and the main driving forces that affect water level changes are essential for future lake water resource planning. This study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test method to explore the WL fluctuations trend and WL mutation in Erhai Lake (EL) during 1990–2019 and explore the main driving factors affecting water level changes, such as characteristic WL adjustments. We also use the principal component analysis to quantify the contribution of compound influencing factors to the water level change in different periods. The results showed that the WL rose at a rate of 47 mm/a during 1990–2019 but was influenced by the characteristic WL adjustment of EL in 2004 and the WL mutation in 2005. In 1990–2004, the WL showed a downtrend caused by the increase in water resource development and utilization intensity, and in 2005–2019, the WL showed an uptrend caused by the combined decrease in evaporation, outflow, and the increase in water supply for water conservancy projects. Additionally, the largest contributions of outflow to WL change were 19.34% and 21.61% in 1990–2019 and 1990–2004, respectively, while the largest contribution of cultivated area to WL change was 20.48% in 2005–2019, and it is worth noting that the largest contribution of climate change to WL change was 40.35% in 2013–2019. In the future, under the increase in outflow and evaporation and the interception of inflow, the WL will decline (Hurst exponent = 0.048). Therefore, planning for the protection and management of lakes should consider the impact of human activities, while also paying attention to the influence of climate change.

Highlights

Lakes, as the most important part of the freshwater ecosystem on earth [1], provide the necessary ecological resources for the development of human society [2,3,4]
The water level (WL) is an intuitive indicator reflecting a lake’s water condition and is an important factor affecting the lake ecosystem and affects lake ecological processes such as nutrient cycling and water layering [12,13], and it can affect the sustainable development of society and economy [14]
The WL and its changes in a lake are crucial to the safety and health of the lake ecosystem [15].Currently, the problem of WL fluctuation exceeding the natural change threshold is common in Chinese lakes, and lake managers have proposed corresponding protection strategies for this question

Summary

Introduction

As the most important part of the freshwater ecosystem on earth [1], provide the necessary ecological resources for the development of human society [2,3,4]. It is very important to monitor lake water resource protection, WL operation, and assessment the influence of compounding factors to the water level variation. The WL is an intuitive indicator reflecting a lake’s water condition and is an important factor affecting the lake ecosystem and affects lake ecological processes such as nutrient cycling and water layering [12,13], and it can affect the sustainable development of society and economy [14]. Poyang Lake, the largest fresh water lake in China, was affected by the decrease inflow and the water regime of the mainstream of the Yangtze River, which caused the WL drop

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