Assessing the Influence Factors of Agricultural Soils’ CH4/N2O Emissions Based on the Revised EDGAR Datasets over Hainan Island in China

Abstract

Global warming poses a significant environmental challenge, which is primarily driven by the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we aimed to investigate the factors influencing CH4/N2O emissions from agricultural soils over Hainan Island, China, from 2009 to 2018. To achieve this, we selected air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation as climate factors and categorized farmland as paddy or non-paddy, using revised EDGAR greenhouse gas datasets involving the bias correction method, and geographical detector analysis, multiple linear regression models, and bias sensitivity analysis were used to quantify the sensitivity of climate and land use. The maximum air temperature emerged as the primary factor influencing CH4 emissions, while the mean air temperature predominantly affected N2O emissions. The ratio of paddy field area to city area emerged as the second most influential factor impacting CH4/N2O emissions. The mean CH4/N2O emission intensity from paddy fields was significantly higher (0.42 t·hm−2/0.0068 t·hm−2) compared to that of non-paddy fields (0.04 t·hm−2/0.002 t·hm−2). Changes in maximum air temperature under global warming and crop irrigation practices profoundly affect greenhouse gas emissions on Hainan Island. Specifically, the emission intensities of CH4 and N2O increased by 14.2% and 11.14% for each Kelvin warmer, respectively.