Assessing the implications of bioenergy deployment in the EU in deep decarbonization and climate‐neutrality context: a scenario‐based analysis

Abstract

AbstractBioenergy may take up different roles in the context of greenhouse gas emission reduction in the EU by mid‐century. We discuss the implications of large‐scale bioenergy deployment in the EU within a decarbonization context using the PRIMES biomass supply model to quantify four scenarios, which explore alternative mitigation pathways based on different emission reduction targets (at least 80% emission reduction by 2050 compared to 1990, and net‐zero emissions by 2050), and different mitigation options, including electrification, behavioral changes, and synfuels. The quantitative assessment of these pathways reveals challenges and opportunities related to the development of a large‐scale bioenergy supply system in the EU. The analysis demonstrates that bioenergy provides between 14% and 17% of final energy consumption and 7–9% of electricity generation. Bioenergy commodities such as gaseous bioenergy and advanced biofuels are deployed in all pathways. The market size of solid biomass and advanced biofuels depends on the contribution of alternative mitigation options such as electricity and synfuels, and decarbonization ambitions. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment requires the supply of energy crops, and the availability of additional agricultural land. Alongside technological preparedness, it requires policies that ensure regulatory coherence and proper market design in order to address the needs of a diverse set of actors across sectors, ranging from farmers, technology investors, and distributors to final consumers; this requires market and policy coordination to unlock the bioenergy contribution to decarbonization. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.