Assessing the impacts of policy: A framework and an application

Abstract

The paper describes a framework for policy appraisal and its application to a retrospective assessment of the EC LFA policy. Appraisal is shown to be dependent upon the ability not only to predict the effects of a policy during its formulation, but also to assess its impacts after implementation. During policy formulation it is important to describe the baseline situation and to identity potential impacts, conflicts with other policies, and appropriate monitoring schemes. Methods previously used in project EIA, namely matrices and flow diagrams, appear to have an application in policy appraisal. After implementation, appraisal should follow a strict sequence of legislative, procedural and substantive review. In assessing policy impacts, environmental change and the causal factors responsible for change must be identified and dissociated from the effects of other policies. The main impacts of the LFA policy in the U.K. have been on upland vegetation and farm amalgamation, but indirect effects on upland landscapes, recreation, wildlife and water resources have also probably occured. In the U.K., application of the policy has not realised its objectives.