Assessing the impacts of meteorological factors on freshwater consumption in arid regions and forecasting the freshwater demand

Abstract

The continuously increasing consumption and scarcity of natural freshwater resources impose threats on different aspects of human life. This study investigated the possible influences of meteorological factors, e.g., relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed, on net freshwater consumption (NFWC). Additionally, we determined the seasonal variations in these factors and forecasted the consumption rate over five years. We took Kuwait as an example and analyzed daily readings obtained from 2014 to 2018 by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Ministry of Electricity and Water. The results showed that the consumption rate was affected positively by temperature and negatively by relative humidity. In the seasonality results, two groups characterizing the summer (May to October) and winter (November to April) seasons were obtained regarding the corresponding meteorological factors and net freshwater production (NFWP) and NFWC. The summer season showed high temperature, NFWC, and NFWP and low relative humidity values. In contrast, the winter season revealed high relative humidity and low temperature, NFWC, and NFWP values. The forecasting model is highly accurate and estimated that NFWC will reach 171,919 million imperial gallons/year by 2024. Thus, the obtained results and performed analyses assist in the future management and performance of installed desalination processes.