Assessing the impacts of historical and future land-use/cover change on habitat quality in the urbanizing Lhasa River Basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a hotspot for biodiversity conservation in the world. Understanding the impacts of land-use/cover change (LUCC) on natural habitat quality (NHQ) in terms of both historical and future urbanization and ecological restoration is important, but existing studies have only focused on the total impacts of historical LUCC on NHQ on the TP. This study aims to assess both historical and future impacts by taking the Lhasa River Basin (LRB) as an example. We quantified the LUCC from 2000 to 2020 based on remote sensing data, and simulated the LUCC during 2020–2030 under the scenarios of business-as-usual (BAU) and cropland conservation. Finally, we used the habitat quality model to assess the impacts of LUCC on NHQ. We found that the improved NHQ due to ecological restoration exceeded the deteriorated NHQ due to urban expansion, resulting in the total NHQ showing an increasing trend in the LRB during 2000–2020. Under the BAU scenario, NHQ was projected to remain stable. However, under the cropland protection scenario, NHQ was projected to deteriorate due to the large-scale occupation of natural habitats by urban expansion, which will be prominent in Chengguan District (NHQ will decrease by 22.52%). To protect both cropland and natural habitats, limiting urban sprawl and implementing ecological protection and restoration are needed.